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Nacta on St Joseph by-election: Split votes put PNM in the lead

Sunday, November 3, 2013

Hours before the polls open for the St Joseph by-election, the North American Caribbean Teachers Association (Nacta) poll once again puts the People’s National Movement candidate, Terrence Deyalsingh, in a “solid lead” ahead of the competition. The Nacta poll has been collated on a weekly basis to track changes in the temperature of the electorate. The poll again saw Deyalsingh trump the United Nation Congress candidate Ian Alleyne and Independent Liberal Party hopeful Om Lalla.


In terms of actual support, the poll’s findings showed the PNM getting 36 per cent of popular support, with the UNC coming in second place with 31 per cent, and ILP polling third at 23 per cent. Nacta also found that the split vote continued to work against both the UNC and the ILP. According to the poll, the “three way division in the votes favours the PNM’s candidate to win” as traditional PNM supporters are solidly backing Deyalsingh, with limited cross over from traditional UNC supporters.


 The findings suggest that “if the votes were not split, Deyalsingh would have virtually no chance of wresting the seat that was held by the UNC, with Lalla winning by a huge margin. The other candidates are drawing insignificant support.” Though Deyalsingh remains in the lead for tomorrow’s election, the poll showed “he is far from obtaining a majority of votes but is favoured to get the most support.” The poll found that most of the UNC supporters are backing Alleyne only because of their support for Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar.


While PNM leader Dr Keith Rowley has dismissed the split vote scenario as a main contributor to a possible PNM victory, polled residents were asked which party is likely to win the St Joseph seat, and “almost two thirds of respondents feel PNM will prevail because of the split vote scenario, with a quarter of the voters saying the contest will be close among the top three contenders.” In another twist, People’s Partnership supporters have also expressed a preference for a coalition between the UNC and the ILP.



Popular Support for the Parties in St Joseph
PNM    UNC    ILP    Others    Undecided

36           31      23           2             8



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